Meet the R&D Creators
\nWe’re bringing together 26 teams of experts in climate science, optics, computer science, mathematics, statistics, photonics, and nuclear physics – spanning startups, academia, and non-profit R&D organisations – to define and detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points.
\nThey will work across three deeply interconnected technical areas (TAs): designing an affordable, sustainable, and just sensing system; deploying new and existing sensing systems in the Greenland Ice Sheet and Subpolar Gyre; and developing new modelling methods.
\nTogether, they aim to develop an early warning system for climate tipping points, equipping leaders with the information they need to adapt to and mitigate the worst impacts of climate change.
\n*Some teams are subject to contract negotiation.
","mediumLayout":false,"fullWidth":false},{"type":"tabs","tabs":[{"title":"TA1 + TA2 ","text":"\n
TA1 + TA2 | Developing new sensing systems and pushing to rapid deployment
\nThese 16 teams will design an affordable, sustainable and just sensing system that addresses our unmet observational needs in challenging polar environments. Then, through a coordinated multi-year field campaign, they will deploy existing and new sensing systems targeted at the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Subpolar Gyre.
","tabId":"","modules":[{"type":"spacer-comp","data":{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"medium","height":0}},{"type":"creator-cards","data":{"type":"creator-cards","items":[{"title":"ICEBERG: Integrated Cryosphere Environmental Baseline Exploration and Remote Geosensing","description":"","teamLead":"Peter J. Christopher, Sal La Cavera III, Connor Taylor, + Benjamin Newsome-Chandler, Ryme + David Grys, Innotronics","team":"","text":"This team will develop a network of self-installing miniature basestations capable of monitoring both above and beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet, allowing us to understand in greater detail the fundamental processes that are changing our planet.
","label":"Completed","cardId":"","video":{"provider":"hosted","id":"/media/htcm2pdv/5086643-hd_1280_720_30fps.mp4","configuration":{"autoplay":false,"loop":false,"controls":true,"mute":false},"poster":{"src":{"mobile":"/media/0lqp22su/frame-66.png?width=600&height=337&format=webp&v=1db30689e952c70","tablet":"/media/0lqp22su/frame-66.png?width=900&height=506&format=webp&v=1db30689e952c70","desktop":"/media/0lqp22su/frame-66.png?width=1540&height=866&format=webp&v=1db30689e952c70"},"alt":"Frame 66","title":""},"customCursor":null},"image":{"src":{"mobile":"/media/jcyhzb32/frame-66-1.png?width=300&height=500&format=webp&v=1db30efa3008980","tablet":"/media/jcyhzb32/frame-66-1.png?width=350&height=700&format=webp&v=1db30efa3008980","desktop":"/media/jcyhzb32/frame-66-1.png?width=1200&height=600&format=webp&v=1db30efa3008980"},"alt":"Frame 66 (1)","title":""},"mediaType":"video","modules":[{"type":"imagery-carousel","images":[{"src":{"mobile":"/media/w1mdlnga/rectangle-75.png?width=400&height=400&format=webp&v=1db30683e9b78b0","tablet":"/media/w1mdlnga/rectangle-75.png?width=900&height=506&format=webp&v=1db30683e9b78b0","desktop":"/media/w1mdlnga/rectangle-75.png?width=1540&height=866&format=webp&v=1db30683e9b78b0"},"alt":"Rectangle 75","title":""},{"src":{"mobile":"/media/jcyhzb32/frame-66-1.png?width=400&height=400&format=webp&v=1db30efa3008980","tablet":"/media/jcyhzb32/frame-66-1.png?width=900&height=506&format=webp&v=1db30efa3008980","desktop":"/media/jcyhzb32/frame-66-1.png?width=1540&height=866&format=webp&v=1db30efa3008980"},"alt":"Frame 66 (1)","title":""},{"src":{"mobile":"/media/0lqp22su/frame-66.png?width=400&height=400&format=webp&v=1db30689e952c70","tablet":"/media/0lqp22su/frame-66.png?width=900&height=506&format=webp&v=1db30689e952c70","desktop":"/media/0lqp22su/frame-66.png?width=1540&height=866&format=webp&v=1db30689e952c70"},"alt":"Frame 66","title":""}],"autoplayDelay":"","showTitle":false},{"type":"rich-text-content","text":"This is some copy
\nThis is some copy This is some copy This is some copy This is some copy This is some copy This is some copy This is some copy This is some copy
\nThis is some copy This is some copy This is some copy
","mediumLayout":false,"fullWidth":false},{"type":"media-item","video":{"provider":"youtube","id":"3CCFIMrPpDY","configuration":{"autoplay":false,"loop":false,"controls":true,"mute":false},"poster":{"src":{"mobile":"/media/y5dpm50c/aria-home.jpg?width=600&height=337&format=webp&v=1dbc0018ba66600","tablet":"/media/y5dpm50c/aria-home.jpg?width=900&height=506&format=webp&v=1dbc0018ba66600","desktop":"/media/y5dpm50c/aria-home.jpg?width=1540&height=866&format=webp&v=1dbc0018ba66600"},"alt":"ARIA Home","title":""},"customCursor":null},"mediaType":"video"},{"type":"quote","quote":"This is a quote. This is a quote This is a quote This is a quote This is a quote. This is a quote This is a quote This is a quote
","author":"By a person","role":"In a role","image":{"src":"/media/k5imdc5b/angie-pd-7.png?width=600&height=750&format=webp&v=1db30eeca7f9470","alt":"Angie PD 7"}},{"type":"rich-text-content","text":"This is some more rich text. This is some more rich text. This is some more rich text. This is some more rich text.
","mediumLayout":false,"fullWidth":false}]},{"title":"Arctic DronePort","description":"","teamLead":"Mathieu Johnsson, Marble","team":"Team: Kerim Hestnes Nisancioglu, University of Bergen | Kirt Ejesiak, ArcticUAV | Svend Hardenberg | Jonathan Meyers, APworks","text":"The team is aiming to reduce the $/km2 of data collection in Greenland by 1,000x by using fleets of small, high speed fixed-wing vertical take-off and landing aircraft, deployed from robotic hangars. This will enable high temporal and spatial resolution data, which will be leveraged by a new forecast model for trusted predictions of the ice sheet melting.
","label":"Cancelled","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"GAMB2LE: Greenland Automated Mass Balance and Boundary Layer Experiment","description":"","teamLead":"Ryan Reynolds Neely III, Sarah Barr, Heather Guy, University of Leeds and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science","team":"Team: Michael Ray Gallagher, the University of Colorado | Alex Fearn, Harriett Richardson| University of Leeds and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science | Menapia | Polar Field Services","text":"This team will build a next-generation, modular, scalable polar observatory capable of characterising the ice-atmosphere interface in remote and under-sampled areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The core of this effort, the Automated Unit for Remote Observations and Research of the Atmosphere (AURORA), will integrate advanced remote-sensing and in-situ instruments, Arctic-hardened unmanned aerial systems, and a sustainable renewable power system. Combined, this will enable continuous, high-resolution data collection in even the most challenging environments, and act as a node for other sensors in a future early warning system.
\n\n
\"Our team has over 40 years of combined experience in making polar observations. We've united together on GAMB2LE as we all have a shared vision and passion to push beyond the current standards in observational science and create a technology that will open new doors to understanding our world.\"
\nRyan Reynolds Neely III, Sarah Barr, Heather Guy
University of Leeds
This team is setting the scene for a next generation ocean and climate observing network, as they plan to convert existing undersea cables (used for telecommunications and forming the backbone of the internet) into seafloor sensors, capable of measuring ocean conditions over thousands of kilometres. The team will develop the acoustic and fingerprinting techniques needed to identify ocean processes and provide an unprecedented view of the deep North Atlantic.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"Oshen-SWARM: Scalable Waterborne Autonomous Research Modules","description":"","teamLead":"Anahita Laverack, Oshen","team":"Team: Ciaran Dowds, Ffion Llewellyn, Jake Lewis, Marcus Thorpe, Oshen","text":"This team will deploy rugged, hand-deployable wind-propelled robots to transform understanding of the Subpolar Gyre. These autonomous \"C-Star\" platforms form adaptive constellations to collect year-round data on critical ocean-atmosphere processes (like mixing dynamics, wave interactions) and deliver continuous insights for climate models. Within two years, the team plans to scale to a 50-strong constellation, using AI algorithms to optimise the adaptive network. Designed for harsh ocean conditions, the low-power systems aim to pioneer data provision for a long-term early-warning network for Subpolar Gyre collapse.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"GRAIL: Greenland Ice sheet to Atlantic tipping points from Ice Loss","description":"","teamLead":"Kelly Hogan, British Antarctic Survey","team":"","text":"Team: Paul Holland, Pierre Dutrieux, Peter Davis, Robert Arthern, Rosie Williams, James Byrne, Oliver Marsh, Tom Jordan, Alvaro Arenas Pingaron, British Antarctic Survey | Mark Inall, Lewis Drysdale, Alison Cook, Laura Castro De La Guardia, Scottish Association of Marine Sciences | Robin Smith, Steve George, University of Reading | Anna Hogg, Benjamin Wallis, University of Leeds | Anna Crawford, University of Stirling | John Taylor, University of Cambridge | Donald Slater, University of Edinburgh | Scott Hosking, Alan Turing Institute | Tom Cowton, University of St Andrews | Ruth Mottram, Jose Abraham Torres Alaves, Danish Meteorological Institute | Jonathan Nash, Erin Petit, Meagan Wengrove, Oregon State University | Alex Phillips, National Oceanography Centre | Alastair Graham, Cardiff University | Britney Schmidt, Peter Washam, Cornell University | Shfaqat Khan, Technical University of Denmark | Doug Benn, St Andrews University | Jan Åström, CSC-IT Centre for Science
\nThis team is focusing on the key link between the North Atlantic and Greenland Ice Sheet – melting and calving at marine glaciers. They'll capture these complex physical processes at difficult-to-access ice faces and floating ice shelves by: developing new sensors and ocean/ice/airborne platforms; deploying these in East and North West Greenland fjords; and implementing improved physics in the UK's Earth System Model. Their results will be scaled up to other fjords, then input into a prototype Early Warning System, which will be co-designed with Greenlandic stakeholders.
\n\n
\"Greenland is the fastest melting place on Earth, but this ice loss has knock-on effects for both North Atlantic ocean currents and fisheries. This crucial research will help us to understand how much freshwater the ice sheet is releasing, and what the subsequent effects will be on the ocean currents that bring warm waters and weather to the UK.\"
\nKelly Hogan
British Antarctic Survey
\"Our team has over 40 years of combined experience in making polar observations. We've united together on GAMB2LE as we all have a shared vision and passion to push beyond the current standards in observational science and create a technology that will open new doors to understanding our world.\"
","author":"Ryan Reynolds Neely III, Sarah Barr, Heather Guy ","role":"University of Leeds","image":{"src":"/media/mgeky3jg/gamb2le.jpeg?width=600&height=750&format=webp&v=1db7fda8001eed0","alt":"A photo of the GAMB2LE team"}}},{"type":"creator-cards","data":{"type":"creator-cards","items":[{"title":"AEROSTATS: Aerial Experimental Remote sensing of Ocean Salinity, heat, advection and Thermohaline Shifts","description":"","teamLead":"Christine Gommenginger, National Oceanography Centre","team":"Team: David McCann, Alice Marzocchi, Louis Clément, Thomas Prime, Christian Buckingham, Simon Josey, Jeremy Grist, Hannah Sait, National Oceanography Centre | José Marquez, Radarmetrics | Adrien Martin, NOVELTIS | Samantha Lavender, Pixalytics","text":"This team is focused on observing fine-scale atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere exchanges in the Greenland sea ice margins. They aim to develop and test a new high-resolution ocean current and wind imager. They'll demonstrate year-round monitoring of currents, winds, ocean colour, salinity, and sea surface temperature using airborne platforms – including airships, High-Altitude Pseudo Satellites, and drones. Their vision is to use these cost-effective, long-term monitoring capabilities to support the development of an Early Warning System for potential Subpolar Gyre convection shutdowns.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"OTTER: Exploiting optical turbulence as part of a climate tipping point early warning system","description":"","teamLead":"Ollie Farley, Durham University","team":"Team: Perrine Lognoné, James Osborn, Durham University | Paul Williams, University of Reading | Menapia","text":"The team is developing a new instrument, OTTER (Optical Turbulence for Tracing Energy in the atmosphere), which will employ a low SWaP-C drone-based laser transmitter and ground-based receiver unit to measure path-resolved properties of turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer. This turbulence is associated with surface to atmosphere heat fluxes that are crucial to the accurate modelling of ice sheet melt rates and subsurface ocean currents. Using OTTER, the team will look to unlock a step-change in our understanding of this turbulent environment, and greatly improve both the quality and quantity of data available to model climate tipping points.
\n\n
\"My background is in optical turbulence measurement for astronomy and satellite communications. This work represents a exciting new direction for me and the group, applying my knowledge of optical turbulence in a new and important domain.\"
\nOllie Farley
Durham University
This team will develop and deploy a proof-of-concept observing system using autonomous profiling floats to continuously monitor turbulence and mixing across the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre. By integrating these novel mixing data into ocean and climate models through advanced state estimation and digital twin frameworks, this team will enhance our mechanistic understanding of freshwater mixing, deep convection, and allow for more accurate predictions of the Gyre's tipping point.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"TUNU","description":"","teamLead":"Anders Læsøe, ASIAQ","team":"Team: Angunnguaq Boassen, Roman Ackle, Anders Ginnerup, Arno Hammann, ASIAQ","text":"This team will deploy new climate monitoring stations in the largely inaccessible eastern coast of Greenland, providing in-situ climate data from the borderline between the Greenlandic ice cap and the Subpolar Gyre.
\n\n
\"This programme offers the opportunity of monitoring the climate in areas of high importance to understanding the climate – both scientifically and commercially – where there is no in-situ monitoring done today.\"
\nAnders Læsøe
ASIAQ
This team is developing a novel hybrid communication and sensing platform called the Optical Reconnaissance and Communication Antenna (ORCA) that leverages structured light to sense the underwater environment and provide cable-free communications between autonomous networks of underwater sensors. Through coordination with satellite imaging, the \"pod\" of ORCAs will travel the oceans, mapping hydrography in space and time. This high-resolution underwater mapping of oceanic currents, depth-resolved temperature, particulate content, and salinity will be critical for monitoring emerging geophysical and biogeochemical reactions of our oceans to climate change.
\nThe team will progress the development of affordable, solar-powered, ultra-persistent, High Altitude Pseudo Satellites (HAPS), stationed in the stratosphere. The team's vision is to make HAPS, which are currently too expensive for many researchers, available to the scientific community to use when monitoring remote regions.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]}]}},{"type":"spacer-comp","data":{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"small","height":0}},{"type":"spacer-comp","data":{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"large","height":0}},{"type":"quote","data":{"type":"quote","quote":"\"My background is in optical turbulence measurement for astronomy and satellite communications. This work represents a exciting new direction for me and the group, applying my knowledge of optical turbulence in a new and important domain.\"
","author":"Ollie Farley","role":"Durham University","image":{"src":"/media/thrpfyuf/otter-ollie-farley.jpg?rxy=0.48997772828507796,0.5612632164124055&width=600&height=750&format=webp&v=1db7fda6737cd70","alt":"A photo of Ollie Farley, from the OTTER team"}}},{"type":"creator-cards","data":{"type":"creator-cards","items":[{"title":"GRuMPS: Greenland Runoff Monitoring from Passive Seismology","description":"","teamLead":"Stephen Livingstone, The University of Sheffield","team":"Team: Florent Gimbert, Université Grenoble Alpes | Samuel Doyle, Aberystwyth University | Kirsty Langley, Dorthe Petersen, Asiaq Greenland Survey | Elizabeth Bagshaw, University of Bristol | Andrew Sole, University of Sheffield","text":"This team will look to revolutionise observation of runoff in Greenland, moving from the current sparse measurements to systematic, continuous and near-real time monitoring of major glacier catchments. They'll achieve this by deploying a network of passive seismic instruments, which can measure runoff by 'listening' to vibrations created by flowing water. These observations will provide critical inputs for climate, ice sheet and ocean models used to simulate climate tipping points.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"PALS: Persistent Autonomous LiDAR Sensor for low-cost subsurface observation of climate-critical biogeochemical parameters","description":"","teamLead":"Struan Dalgleish, Fraser Dalgleish, Imirfada Ltd | David McKee, University of Strathclyde.","team":"","text":"This team is developing a low-cost, autonomous Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) profiling device suitable for installation in ocean-going platforms to persistently observe and quantify phytoplankton distributions in the upper ocean. The team's vision is to create a network of LiDAR devices capable of fully automatic, long term, unattended operations. By placing the LiDAR devices on research vessels, ferries, cruise ships, fishing fleets and container ships, the goal is to create a rich dataset that can help us predict and prepare for significant changes in the earth's climate and the ocean ecosystem health.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"CosmicRay: Ice sheet instability monitoring using distributed cosmic ray sensors","description":"","teamLead":"Patrick Stowell, University of Sheffield","team":"","text":"This team is looking at developing next-generation cosmic-ray neutron sensors suitable for rapid deployment in the harsh environments of the Greenland Ice Sheet. These distributed sensor arrays will provide high-resolution time-series data on soil moisture and melting rates in the ice sheets, supporting modelling initiatives in the wider ARIA programme. In the longer term, the team hope these lower-cost distributed sensor arrays could be combined with cosmic ray sensor deployments in other countries, allowing their data to feed directly into hydrological monitoring networks on a global scale.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"Connecting Subsea to Satellites","description":"","teamLead":"George Morton, Online Oceans","team":"Team: Alistair Douglas, Online Oceans | Sophie Diehl, Zachary Crockett, Eric Stackpole, Sofar Ocean","text":"The team will deliver a solution capable of connecting subsea sensors with satellites, making use of the Online Oceans Solar Scout autonomous surface robot and Bristlemouth, an open connectivity standard for marine applications developed by Sofar and partners. To ensure this technology is scalable, the team will focus on delivering a long endurance platform for a fraction of the cost of existing solutions. Their ultimate goal is to develop a scalable, automated system for data collection which does not require human intervention.
\n\n
\"The team is excited to work at the forefront of climate research, delivering capabilities which will help humanity to better understand the oceans, and their impact on our climate.\"
\nGeorge Morton,
Online Oceans Robotics
\"The team is excited to work at the forefront of climate research, delivering capabilities which will help humanity to better understand the oceans, and their impact on our climate.\"
","author":"George Morton","role":"Online Oceans Robotics","image":{"src":"/media/03lg1zsh/george-morton-connecting-subsea-to-satellites.jpg?rxy=0.27590181574050515,0.26903507208458466&width=600&height=750&format=webp&v=1db7fc7ff7e0530","alt":"A photo of George Morton, from the Connecting Subsea To Satellites project"}}}]},{"title":"TA3 ","text":"\n
TA3 | Uniting models and measurements to create an early warning system
\nWe're funding 10 teams to unlock the mathematical, physical and computational methods necessary to characterise tipping point dynamics, their subsequent impacts and potential economic consequences.
\n","tabId":"","modules":[{"type":"spacer-comp","data":{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"small","height":0}},{"type":"creator-cards","data":{"type":"creator-cards","items":[{"title":"TiMBER: Forecasting Tipping Points in Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Responses","description":"","teamLead":"Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia","team":"Team: Tereza Jarníková, Marie-Fanny Racault, Philip Townsend, Rebecca Wright, University of East Anglia | Stephanie Henson, Elisa Lovecchio, Thelma Panaïotis, National Oceanography Centre | Bryony Townhill, Paul Buckley, John Pinnegar, Matthew Thomas, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science | Dominic Orchard, Institute of Computing for Climate Science University of Cambridge | Jennifer Graham, Scottish Association for Marine Science","text":"
This team will look to understand, and predict tipping points in marine ecosystems, and their consequences and opportunities for the UK, especially for the fishing industry. By developing an Ocean Systems Model and applying it, using constraints from existing and new data from ARIA and AI methods, the team will assess the risks of tipping points in marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry, helping us to prepare for and respond to marine changes, and support sustainable and resilient fisheries.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"OptimISM: A next-generation framework for Ice Sheet Modelling","description":"","teamLead":"Trystan Surawy-Stepney, University of Leeds","team":"Team: Steph Cornford, University of Bristol | Anna Hogg, University of Leeds","text":"This team is developing an advanced ice sheet model that combines machine learning with fluid dynamics to better predict future ice sheet behaviour. Their work will enhance how we model critical processes like ice fracture and grounding line dynamics, leveraging recent advances in computational fluid dynamics and machine learning to tackle persistent challenges in ice sheet projections.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"PROMOTE: Progressing earth system Modelling for Tipping Point Early warning systems","description":"","teamLead":"Reinhard Schiemann, University of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science","team":"","text":"Team: Andrea Dittus, Till Kuhlbrodt, Charlotte Lang, Jon Robson, Robin Smith, Ranjini Swaminathan, University of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science | Hazel Jeffery, Colin Jones, University of Leeds and National Centre for Atmospheric Science | Adam Blaker, Fatma Jebri, Ekaterina Popova, Bablu Sinha, National Oceanography Centre | Diego Bruciaferri, Laura Jackson, Jane Mulcahy, Richard Wood, Met Office | Kaitlin Naughten, British Antarctic Survey | Stephen Cornford, University of Bristol | Simon Tett, University of Edinburgh
\nThis team is working to improve how the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and the Greenland Ice Sheet, and their interactions, are represented by the UK's Earth System Model, both through targeted development of key physical processes and increases in model resolution. PROMOTE will also develop new methods to simulate tipping behaviour more efficiently and conduct model experiments to support the design of observational arrays. Their work will help assess the risks and consequences of potential tipping points in these critical systems, informing both scientific and public understanding.
\n\n
\"Forecasting Tipping Points is a formidable challenge. The fantastic range of teams tackling this challenge from different angles, yet working together in a coordinated fashion, makes this programme a unique opportunity, and I am excited to be part of it!\"
\nReinhard Schiemann
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading
This team brings together experts in past climates (modelling, analytical geochemistry and sedimentology), oceanography, atmospheric science, glaciology, artificial intelligence, machine learning and modelling for decision making. Together, they will build Digital Twins – computer simulations trained or merged with real-world data – of past Greenland ice sheet and North Atlantic subpolar gyre tipping to evaluate the performance of new technologies developed by the programme. Through this approach, the team will hone observational systems, physical process-based models and early warning detection algorithms against real-world realisations of tipping behaviour to build a robust and trusted early warning system.
\nThis team aims to achieve a breakthrough in early warning of tipping points by leveraging progress in theory, AI and physical understanding. The team are focusing on the Subpolar Gyre, because it could tip quickly and soon, meaning that critical slowing down behaviour may be expected before tipping. Through developing these early warning methods, the team intend to guide new observations, and increase confidence and precision in when a tipping point is likely to be crossed.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"Robust Assessments of Tipping Point Risks, Early Warnings, and Socio-Economic Impacts","description":"","teamLead":"David Stainforth, London School of Economics and Political Science","team":"Team: Jonathan Rosser, London School of Economics and Political Science","text":"This team will bring expertise in nonlinear dynamical systems, stochastic processes, climate modelling, and economics, to understand: what can and cannot be concluded now about the physical and economic consequences of tipping events in the North Atlantic; and how we can optimise modelling approaches to most effectively learn more in the future. In doing so, the team hopes to develop methods which can robustly characterise the modelling uncertainties associated with both early warning systems and the economic value associated with them.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]}]}},{"type":"spacer-comp","data":{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"small","height":0}},{"type":"spacer-comp","data":{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"large","height":0}},{"type":"quote","data":{"type":"quote","quote":"\"Forecasting Tipping Points is a formidable challenge. The fantastic range of teams tackling this challenge from different angles, yet working together in a coordinated fashion, makes this programme a unique opportunity, and I am excited to be part of it!\"
","author":"Reinhard Schiemann","role":"National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading","image":{"src":"/media/bzqdgxgf/promote-reinhard-schiemann.jpg?width=600&height=750&format=webp&v=1db7fc7ee769590","alt":"A photo of Reinhard Schiemann from the PROMOTE project"}}},{"type":"creator-cards","data":{"type":"creator-cards","items":[{"title":"Probabilistic Forecasting of Climate Tipping Points: Statistical modelling with uncertainty quantification and computational methods (PROTECT)","description":"","teamLead":"Victor Elvira, University of Edinburgh","team":"","text":"This team introduces robust learning approaches for probabilistic forecasting of climate tipping points, focusing on data integration, probabilistic models, and computational strategies. The framework is grounded in sound statistical methodologies, leveraging recent advances in machine learning, statistics, and signal processing. Their approach prioritises interpretability, quantifies uncertainty, and ensures computational scalability and efficiency, making significant contributions to both practical forecasting and scientific understanding.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"G-PREWS: Greenland Peripheral Glacier Response and Early Warning System","description":"","teamLead":"Larissa Nora van der Laan, University of Copenhagen","team":"","text":"This project will contribute to an early warning system for the Greenland Ice Sheet by modelling the response of peripheral glaciers using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM). Glaciers significantly contribute to mass loss and may serve as early indicators of tipping points, and this project seeks to enhance climate resilience by improving predictions of destabilisation. Leveraging an interdisciplinary approach (integrating science, communication, and art) G-PREWS will engage impacted communities, foster public awareness and inclusivity in climate science. The ultimate vision is to bridge research and public discourse, ensuring effective early warning strategies.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"AI-powered Early Warning System for Critical Subpolar Gyre Changes","description":"","teamLead":"Christina Last + Carla Roesch, Directors at TipplyAI","team":"","text":"This team is looking to develop an early warning system for critical thresholds of the Subpolar Gyre. Their system will be based on novel dynamics-informed machine learning approaches using a combination of observational and model data. To set the foundations for open communication, their system will be made available as an interactive website once complete.
","label":"","cardId":"","mediaType":null,"modules":[]},{"title":"SORTED: Subpolar Gyre Observations, models and artificial intelligence to Resolve Tipping points and provide Early warning Detection","description":"","teamLead":"Alejandra Sanchez-Franks, National Oceanography Centre","team":"Team: Ben Moat, Tiago Dotto, Tillys Petit, Jennifer Mecking, Jonathan Coney, Amber Walsh, Alberto Arribas Herranz, National Oceanography Centre | Didier Swingedouw, University of Bordeaux | Sybren Drijfhout, University of Southampton","text":"This team is planning to fundamentally improve our ability to detect and monitor the early warning signs of Subpolar Gyre collapse by pushing the spatiotemporal capabilities of existing observational records, using a novel combination of AI and tipping point knowledge from models. By identifying critical gaps and uncertainties in our ocean datasets, the team will also make recommendations on the observations still needed to build robust early warning systems for a potential Subpolar Gyre collapse.
\n\n
\"As ocean and climate scientists, we observe the front line of our current climate crisis through its impacts on the ocean on a daily basis. For the first time, this programme is offering a unique and ambitious opportunity to develop a cross-disciplinary effort to address the gaps in our understanding of Subpolar North Atlantic tipping points and build an actionable plan to mitigate their impacts.\"
\nAlejandra Sanchez-Franks
National Oceanography Centre
\"As ocean and climate scientists, we observe the front line of our current climate crisis through its impacts on the ocean on a daily basis. For the first time, this programme is offering a unique and ambitious opportunity to develop a cross-disciplinary effort to address the gaps in our understanding of Subpolar North Atlantic tipping points and build an actionable plan to mitigate their impacts.\"
","author":"Alejandra Sanchez-Franks","role":"National Oceanography Centre","image":{"src":"/media/y4dfovkp/sorted-alejandra-sanchez-franks.jpg?rxy=0.9477351916376306,0.2926829268292683&width=600&height=750&format=webp&v=1db80592ff10190","alt":"A photo of Alejandra Sanchez Franks, from the SORTED project"}}},{"type":"spacer-comp","data":{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"large","height":0}}]}],"alignCentre":false},{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"medium","height":0},{"type":"double-card","items":[{"title":"The Creator experience","text":"What you can expect as an ARIA R&D creator.","link":{"isActive":false,"text":"Learn more ","href":"/funding-opportunities/the-creator-experience","title":"about what to expect as an ARIA Creator"},"colour":null},{"title":"Applicant guidance","text":"Discover the process of applying for ARIA funding and find key resources.","link":{"isActive":false,"text":"Find out more ","href":"/funding-opportunities/applicant-guidance","title":"about the application process"},"colour":null}],"fullWidth":false},{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"medium","height":0}],"scriptsAtTop":" \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n","scriptsAtBottom":"","id":2915,"languageCode":"en","pageName":"Meet the Creators","scrollSmoothness":0.0,"gtmCode":"GTM-T8Z5F55","topNav":{"logo":{"text":"ARIA - Home","href":"/media/hsxblxrf/logo-aria-black.svg"},"nodes":[{"text":"About us","href":null,"target":null,"id":null,"nodes":[{"text":"About us","href":"/about-aria","target":null,"id":"2207","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Our team","href":"/about-aria/our-team","target":null,"id":"2159","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Programme Directors","href":"/about-aria/our-team/programme-directors","target":null,"id":"2831","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Reporting and policies","href":"/about-aria/reporting-and-policies","target":null,"id":"2160","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false}],"noOpener":true,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"What we do","href":null,"target":null,"id":null,"nodes":[{"text":"How we work","href":"/how-we-work","target":null,"id":"2817","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Live opportunity spaces","href":"/opportunity-spaces","target":null,"id":"2215","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Emerging areas","href":"/emerging-areas","target":null,"id":"2963","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Activation Partners","href":"/activation-partners","target":null,"id":"2174","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false}],"noOpener":true,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Funding","href":null,"target":null,"id":null,"nodes":[{"text":"Funding opportunities","href":"/funding-opportunities","target":null,"id":"2164","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Applicant guidance","href":"/funding-opportunities/applicant-guidance","target":null,"id":"2162","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Being funded by ARIA","href":"/funding-opportunities/the-creator-experience","target":null,"id":"2433","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"FAQs","href":"/funding-opportunities/faqs","target":null,"id":"2649","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false}],"noOpener":true,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Careers","href":"https://aria-jobs.teamtailor.com/","target":"_blank","id":null,"nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false}],"headerLinks":[{"target":"","isActive":false,"text":"Become a Programme Director","href":"/about-aria/our-team/programme-directors/cohort-3","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Opportunity spaces","href":"/opportunity-spaces","title":""}],"menuLinks":[{"isActive":false,"text":"Contact us","href":"/contact","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Terms of use","href":"/terms-and-conditions","title":""}],"activeItem":"2915","menuText":"Menu","menuTextClose":"Close menu","search":{"isActive":false,"text":"Search","href":"/search","title":""},"animationOffText":"Motion: Off","animationOnText":"Motion: On"},"footer":{"header":"Help us drive momentum ","text":"ARIA is a non-departmental public body, sponsored by the Department for Science, Innovation + Technology.","copyright":"Copyright 2026","headerLinks":[{"isActive":false,"text":"Contact","href":"/contact","title":""},{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"Careers","href":"https://aria-jobs.teamtailor.com/","title":""}],"socialHeader":"Follow our progress","footerLinks":[{"isActive":false,"text":"Privacy Policy","href":"/privacy-policy","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Terms and Conditions","href":"/terms-and-conditions","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Cookie Policy","href":"/cookie-policy","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Accessibility Statement","href":"/accessibility-statement","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Accessibility Support","href":"/funding-opportunities/accessibility-support","title":""},{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"Careers","href":"https://aria-jobs.teamtailor.com/","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Supply to us","href":"/supply-to-us","title":""}],"socialItems":[{"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"ARIA Research Twitter","href":"https://x.com/aria_research","title":""},"type":"x"},{"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"LinkedIn","href":"https://www.linkedin.com/company/advanced-research-and-invention-agency","title":""},"type":"Linkedin"},{"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"ARIA Research Substack","href":"https://ariaresearch.substack.com/","title":""},"type":"SubStack"}],"formText":"","formSubmit":"Sign up","formId":"","recaptchaSiteKey":"6LcuyY4bAAAAAE2OzRFfA7vDWyohfZXyl2uTuHLa","verificationToken":"","redirectUrl":null,"submitMessage":"","formTheme":""},"seo":{"title":"Meet the Creators | Forecasting Tipping Points","description":"Meet the Creator teams behind the Forecasting Tipping Points programme. Backed by £81m, this programme aims to enhance our climate change response by developing an early warning system for tipping points.","keywords":"forecast tipping points, research and development, programme development teams, research teams, ARIA opportunity space","includeInSitemapXml":true,"canonicalTag":""},"sharing":{"og":[{"property":"og:title","content":"Meet the Creators | Forecasting Tipping Points"},{"property":"og:description","content":"Meet the Creator teams behind the Forecasting Tipping Points programme. Backed by £81m, this programme aims to enhance our climate change response by developing an early warning system for tipping points."},{"property":"og:image","content":"https://aria.org.uk/media/osghhrey/forecasting-tipping-points-programme.jpg?width=600&format=webp&quality=100&v=1db66a380d2e990"},{"property":"og:url","content":"https://aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/scoping-our-planet/forecasting-tipping-points/meet-the-creators"}],"twitter":[{"name":"twitter:card","content":"summary_large_image"},{"name":"twitter:site","content":"@ARIA_research"},{"name":"twitter:title","content":"Meet the Creators | Forecasting Tipping Points"},{"name":"twitter:description","content":"Meet the Creator teams behind the Forecasting Tipping Points programme. Backed by £81m, this programme aims to enhance our climate change response by developing an early warning system for tipping points."},{"name":"twitter:image","content":"https://aria.org.uk/media/osghhrey/forecasting-tipping-points-programme.jpg?width=600&format=webp&quality=100&v=1db66a380d2e990"},{"name":"twitter:url","content":"https://aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/scoping-our-planet/forecasting-tipping-points/meet-the-creators"}]},"pageType":"programmePage"}