Our goal
\nTo create an early warning system for tipping points that equips the world with the information we need to build resilience and accelerate proactive climate adaptation.
Why this programme
\nMajor parts of the Earth system are at risk of crossing climate tipping points within the next century, with severe consequences for biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and humanity. Despite the potential impact, we’re poorly equipped to characterise the long-term trends of our climate systems, or predict the future risk of runaway, self-perpetuating change.
\nOur best observational datasets are at a nascent stage, while our best climate models are computationally expensive and do not capture all the physical processes we need.
What we’re shooting for
\nCombining expertise in observation and modelling with innovative sensing systems, we’ll look to develop a proof-of-concept for an early warning system for climate tipping points that is affordable, sustainable and justified. We’ll achieve this through a targeted deployment of low-cost sensing systems, to be tested in a multi-year field campaign, whose data can be integrated with advances in physics- and AI-driven models to push the frontiers of knowledge for climate tipping points.
\nBy unifying these approaches, we’re aiming to confidently predict when a system will tip, what the consequences be, and how quickly that change will unfold.
\n\n
Read the programme thesis (English)
\nRead the programme thesis (Greenlandic)
\nRead the accessible version of the programme thesis
","mediumLayout":false,"fullWidth":false},{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"medium","height":0},{"type":"quote","quote":"\"Our programme aims to unite low-cost measurements and AI-accelerated modelling to create the first early warning system for climate tipping points. Understanding when, where and over what timescale abrupt changes could be felt in the climate system is vital and will empower us to forecast the expected consequences for humanity, enabling proactive climate adaptation and mitigation.\"
","author":"Gemma Bale + Sarah Bohndiek","role":"Programme Directors","image":{"src":"/media/wdwiy3yh/sarah-plus-gemma_.jpg?width=600&height=750&format=webp&v=1db47edd87a3330","alt":"A photo of Sarah Bohndiek and Gemma Bale"}},{"type":"rich-text-content","text":"Technical Areas
\nThis programme is split into three technical areas (TAs).
","mediumLayout":false,"fullWidth":false},{"cards":[{"title":"Developing new sensing systems and pushing to rapid deployment","text":"These 16 teams will design an affordable, sustainable and just sensing system that addresses our unmet observational needs in challenging polar environments. Then, through a coordinated multi-year field campaign, they will deploy existing and new sensing systems targeted at the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Subpolar Gyre.","step":"TA1 + TA2"},{"title":"Uniting models and measurements to create an early warning system","text":"We're funding 10 teams to unlock the mathematical, physical and computational methods necessary to characterise tipping point dynamics, their subsequent impacts and potential economic consequences. ","step":"TA3"}],"type":"numbered-cards","heading":"","subHeading":""},{"type":"rich-text-content","text":"Standardisation, calibration + breaking systemic barriers
\n
Our work is built on two core themes. First, in partnership with the National Physical Laboratory, we’ll develop quality assurance standards for the programme's observational data through rigorous calibration and validation. Second, we’ll break down research silos to attract diverse talent – including new climate entrants and young people – and collaborate closely with Greenlandic partners to ensure direct benefits to local communities and environments.
We’re bringing together 26 teams of experts in climate science, optics, computer science, mathematics, statistics, photonics, and nuclear physics – spanning startups, academia, and non-profit R&D organisations – to define and detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points.
","link":{"isActive":false,"text":"Meet the Creators","href":"/opportunity-spaces/scoping-our-planet/forecasting-tipping-points/meet-the-creators","title":""},"color":"c7e9fb","isWhiteText":false,"fullWidth":false},{"type":"rich-text-content","text":"Meet the programme team
\nOur Programme Directors are supported by a core team that provides a blend of operational coordination and highly specialised technical expertise.
","mediumLayout":false,"fullWidth":false},{"type":"team-cards","items":[{"image":{"src":"/media/wdwiy3yh/sarah-plus-gemma_.jpg?width=1000&height=1000&format=webp&v=1db47edd87a3330","alt":"A photo of Sarah Bohndiek and Gemma Bale"},"name":"Gemma Bale + Sarah Bohndiek","text":"Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek are biomedical physicists working as co-Programme Directors. They both joined ARIA from the University of Cambridge, where Gemma continues to lead teams working on non-invasive brain monitoring, and Sarah in optical imaging technology for earlier cancer detection.","position":"Programme Directors"},{"image":{"src":"/media/uldjvri0/jess-humphreys.jpg?rxy=0.4959256566002224,0.43139255376513513&width=1000&height=1000&format=webp&v=1db4d52811b5230","alt":"A photo of Jess Humphreys, the Scoping Our Planet P-Spec"},"name":" Jess Humphreys","text":"Prior to working with ARIA, Jess built a career innovating clinical trial management at tech SMEs, where she led teams developing interactive response technology platforms to streamline trial processes, and oversaw global data management and quality control at neuroimaging facilities. Jess supports ARIA as an operating partner from Pace.","position":"Programme Specialist"},{"image":{"src":"/media/f0jj0w2e/dan-giles.jpg?rxy=0.5122166444827333,0.4431562264845522&width=1000&height=1000&format=webp&v=1db4d5291fd1160","alt":"A photo of the Scoping Our Planet T-Spec, Dan Giles"},"name":"Dan Giles","text":"Dan has a diverse academic background in applied mathematics, statistics, and computer science, with a focus on developing and enhancing ocean and atmospheric models. He joined ARIA from University College London, where he is a Senior Research Fellow in machine learning for weather and climate sciences.","position":"Technical Specialist"}],"title":"","text":""},{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"medium","height":0},{"type":"news-insights","title":"Featured insights","sliderTitle":"","sliderLink":null,"featured":{"title":"Early warning system for climate tipping points given £81m kickstart","text":"The Guardian
\nAmbitious UK project aims to forecast climate catastrophes using fleets of drones, cosmic ray detection, patterns of plankton blooms and more.
","image":{"src":{"mobile":"/media/hokpa353/earlywarningsystemforclimatetippingpoints.png?width=300&height=375&format=webp&v=1dbdb9cb4c322b0","tablet":"/media/hokpa353/earlywarningsystemforclimatetippingpoints.png?width=440&height=550&format=webp&v=1dbdb9cb4c322b0","desktop":"/media/hokpa353/earlywarningsystemforclimatetippingpoints.png?width=600&height=750&format=webp&v=1dbdb9cb4c322b0"},"alt":"Earlywarningsystemforclimatetippingpoints","title":""},"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"Read more ","href":"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/18/early-warning-system-for-climate-tipping-points-given-81m-kickstart","title":"on TheGuardian.com"}},"items":[{"title":"Wanted: An early-warning system for the end of the world","tag":"News","date":"30 December 2024","outlet":"Politico","image":{"src":"/media/eo5noz2t/forecasttippingpoints_news.png?width=400&height=400&format=webp&v=1dbad3f3f431f30","alt":"Snow-capped mountains at sunset with a small rocky island in the foreground"},"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"Read more ","href":"https://www.politico.eu/article/wanted-climate-early-warning-system-for-the-end-of-the-world/","title":"on politico.eu"}},{"title":"Can ARIA put the UK back on the scientific map?","tag":"News","date":"02 October 2024","outlet":"Wired UK","image":{"src":"/media/ky0gc3dz/wired-piece.png?width=400&height=400&format=webp&v=1db4c887dbaf7f0","alt":"A photo of Matt Clifford, Ilan Gur and Angie Burnett looking at the camera. Matt and Angie are sat down and Ilan is standing."},"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"Read more ","href":"https://www.wired.com/story/aria-moonshot-darpa-uk-britain-great-again/?utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=share","title":"on wired.com"}},{"title":"The UK’s $1-billion bet to create technologies that change the world","tag":"News","date":"18 September 2024","outlet":"Nature","image":{"src":"/media/ihpdfcm1/d41586-024-02995-1_27683382.webp?width=400&height=400&format=webp&v=1dba876522b2c50","alt":"D41586 024 02995 1 27683382"},"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"Read more ","href":"https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02995-1","title":"on nature.com"}},{"title":"The UK is building an alarm system for climate tipping points","tag":"","date":"04 September 2025","outlet":"MIT Tech Review","image":{"src":"/media/xelpgl2k/gettyimages-1338582490.webp?width=400&height=400&format=webp&v=1db4c875906b7b0","alt":"Gettyimages 1338582490"},"link":{"isActive":true,"text":"Read more ","href":"https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/09/04/1103555/the-uk-is-building-an-alarm-system-for-climate-tipping-points/","title":"on MIT technologyreview.com"}},{"title":"Engineers vs climate change, with Sarah Bohndiek","tag":"Insights","date":"17 September 2024","outlet":"The Naked Science Podcast","image":{"src":"/media/zspdqxvh/naked-scientist-ft-sarah-bohndiek.jpg?width=400&height=400&format=webp&v=1db47ed6c7accd0","alt":"Naked Scientist Ft Sarah Bohndiek"},"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"Listen now ","href":"https://www.thenakedscientists.com/podcasts/naked-scientists-podcast/engineers-vs-climate-change","title":"on thenakedscientists.com"}}]},{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"small","height":0},{"type":"standout-copy","title":"Sign up for updates","text":"Stay up-to-date on our programmes and opportunity spaces.
","link":{"isActive":false,"text":"Sign up ","href":"/sign-up-for-updates","title":"for updates on our programmes and opportunity spaces"},"color":"c7e9fb","isWhiteText":false,"fullWidth":false},{"type":"double-card","items":[{"title":"Programme Directors","text":"Our Programme Directors are exceptional scientists and engineers with the curiosity to explore uncharted territory","link":{"isActive":false,"text":"Find out more ","href":"/about-aria/our-team/programme-directors","title":"about ARIA's Programme Directors"},"colour":null},{"title":"How we work","text":"We seek out exceptional scientists and empower them with the resources and autonomy to turn their ideas into reality","link":{"isActive":false,"text":"Learn more ","href":"/how-we-work","title":"about how ARIA work"},"colour":null}],"fullWidth":false},{"type":"spacer-comp","cssSizeClass":"small","height":0}],"scriptsAtTop":" \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n","scriptsAtBottom":"","id":2320,"languageCode":"en","pageName":"Forecasting Tipping Points","scrollSmoothness":0.0,"gtmCode":"GTM-T8Z5F55","topNav":{"logo":{"text":"ARIA - Home","href":"/media/hsxblxrf/logo-aria-black.svg"},"nodes":[{"text":"About us","href":null,"target":null,"id":null,"nodes":[{"text":"About us","href":"/about-aria","target":null,"id":"2207","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Our team","href":"/about-aria/our-team","target":null,"id":"2159","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Programme Directors","href":"/about-aria/our-team/programme-directors","target":null,"id":"2831","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Reporting and policies","href":"/about-aria/reporting-and-policies","target":null,"id":"2160","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false}],"noOpener":true,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"What we do","href":null,"target":null,"id":null,"nodes":[{"text":"How we work","href":"/how-we-work","target":null,"id":"2817","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Live opportunity spaces","href":"/opportunity-spaces","target":null,"id":"2215","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Emerging areas","href":"/emerging-areas","target":null,"id":"2963","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Activation Partners","href":"/activation-partners","target":null,"id":"2174","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false}],"noOpener":true,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Funding","href":null,"target":null,"id":null,"nodes":[{"text":"Funding opportunities","href":"/funding-opportunities","target":null,"id":"2164","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Applicant guidance","href":"/funding-opportunities/applicant-guidance","target":null,"id":"2162","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Being funded by ARIA","href":"/funding-opportunities/the-creator-experience","target":null,"id":"2433","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"FAQs","href":"/funding-opportunities/faqs","target":null,"id":"2649","nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false}],"noOpener":true,"noReferrer":false},{"text":"Careers","href":"https://aria-jobs.teamtailor.com/","target":"_blank","id":null,"nodes":[],"noOpener":false,"noReferrer":false}],"headerLinks":[{"target":"","isActive":false,"text":"Become a Programme Director","href":"/about-aria/our-team/programme-directors/cohort-3","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Opportunity spaces","href":"/opportunity-spaces","title":""}],"menuLinks":[{"isActive":false,"text":"Contact us","href":"/contact","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Terms of use","href":"/terms-and-conditions","title":""}],"activeItem":"2320","menuText":"Menu","menuTextClose":"Close menu","search":{"isActive":false,"text":"Search","href":"/search","title":""},"animationOffText":"Motion: Off","animationOnText":"Motion: On"},"footer":{"header":"Help us drive momentum ","text":"ARIA is a non-departmental public body, sponsored by the Department for Science, Innovation + Technology.","copyright":"Copyright 2026","headerLinks":[{"isActive":false,"text":"Contact","href":"/contact","title":""},{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"Careers","href":"https://aria-jobs.teamtailor.com/","title":""}],"socialHeader":"Follow our progress","footerLinks":[{"isActive":false,"text":"Privacy Policy","href":"/privacy-policy","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Terms and Conditions","href":"/terms-and-conditions","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Cookie Policy","href":"/cookie-policy","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Accessibility Statement","href":"/accessibility-statement","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Accessibility Support","href":"/funding-opportunities/accessibility-support","title":""},{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"Careers","href":"https://aria-jobs.teamtailor.com/","title":""},{"isActive":false,"text":"Supply to us","href":"/supply-to-us","title":""}],"socialItems":[{"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"ARIA Research Twitter","href":"https://x.com/aria_research","title":""},"type":"x"},{"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"LinkedIn","href":"https://www.linkedin.com/company/advanced-research-and-invention-agency","title":""},"type":"Linkedin"},{"link":{"target":"_blank","isActive":true,"text":"ARIA Research Substack","href":"https://ariaresearch.substack.com/","title":""},"type":"SubStack"}],"formText":"","formSubmit":"Sign up","formId":"","recaptchaSiteKey":"6LcuyY4bAAAAAE2OzRFfA7vDWyohfZXyl2uTuHLa","verificationToken":"","redirectUrl":null,"submitMessage":"","formTheme":""},"seo":{"title":"Forecasting Tipping Points","description":"Backed by £81m, this programme aims to enhance our climate change response by developing an early warning system for tipping points.","keywords":"forecasting tipping points, climate change response, early warning system, tipping points, funding research, seed funding, ARIA opportunity spaces","includeInSitemapXml":true,"canonicalTag":""},"sharing":{"og":[{"property":"og:title","content":"Forecasting Tipping Points"},{"property":"og:description","content":"Backed by £81m, this programme aims to enhance our climate change response by developing an early warning system for tipping points."},{"property":"og:image","content":"https://aria.org.uk/media/osghhrey/forecasting-tipping-points-programme.jpg?width=600&format=webp&quality=100&v=1db66a380d2e990"},{"property":"og:url","content":"https://aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/scoping-our-planet/forecasting-tipping-points"}],"twitter":[{"name":"twitter:card","content":"summary_large_image"},{"name":"twitter:site","content":"@ARIA_research"},{"name":"twitter:title","content":"Forecasting Tipping Points"},{"name":"twitter:description","content":"Backed by £81m, this programme aims to enhance our climate change response by developing an early warning system for tipping points."},{"name":"twitter:image","content":"https://aria.org.uk/media/osghhrey/forecasting-tipping-points-programme.jpg?width=600&format=webp&quality=100&v=1db66a380d2e990"},{"name":"twitter:url","content":"https://aria.org.uk/opportunity-spaces/scoping-our-planet/forecasting-tipping-points"}]},"pageType":"opArticlePage"}